Between 1990 and 2000 A.D. the world will face a potential energy scarcity and the United Kingdom will change from being an energy exporting country in 1990 to having to import energy by the year 2000. These are the projections of a paper prepared by the Energy Research Group at the Cavendish Laboratory, Cambridge, for the Advisory Council on Energy Conservation (ACEC).

“For the short to medium term future, U.K. energy prospects are favourable compared with those of many industrialised countries. These favourable prospects could lead to energy problems in the long term unless there is adequate development of the coal and nuclear power industries, together with the adoption of vigorous measures for energy conservation. Additional measures for energy conservation in this period will contribute also to the longer term future by allowing more time for the development of alternative supplies and for long term gains from energy conservation,” says the paper.

It is pointed out that the U.K. Government can influence a number of areas relating to future energy prospects, including development of the coal supply industry; development of more efficient techniques for the direct use of coal; controlling the rate of development and depletion of North Sea oil and gas; development of the electricity supply industry, particularly nuclear power; energy conservation measures, particularly those relating to standards, regulations and pricing of fuels; and international energy policy and co-ordination. The paper covers the historical features of both world and U.K. energy demand, outlines world and U.K. energy resources and, from these, makes projections of world and U.K. supply and demand between 1990 and 2000. The world projections are based on assumptions of high and low economic growth. For the U.K. each of these projections is coupled with alternative assumptions of high and low indigenous energy supply. The paper says that in all four cases there is a net import requirement in the U.K. for coal, oil and gas by the year 2000.

The “energy gap” in the U.K. is estimated as requiring imports of from 66 to 176 million tons of oil equivalent, depending on the rate of economic growth and the level of indigenous supplies. The paper says that the projections are not forecasts for future energy demand, but are designed to illustrate the range of problems that need to be taken into account in energy planning. The discussion document, “Energy R&D in the United Kingdom,” designed to provide a framework for future planning of research and development of energy technologies in this country, is also published by the Department of Energy. Prepared under the aegis of the Department’s Advisory Council on Research and Development for Fuel and Power (ACORD), the paper says that a detailed strategy can evolve only through discussion involving energy industries and consumers over a period of time.